The global artificial intelligence (AI) market is projected to reach $4.8 trillion by 2033, approximately the size of Germany’s current economy, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). In its Technology and Innovation Report 2025, UNCTAD highlights the increasing concentration of AI’s economic benefits and warns of the potential for widening inequality without coordinated international action.
The report outlines the potential of AI to transform economic systems and drive innovation, while noting that the gains are currently limited to a small group of countries and corporations. At present, just 100 firms—primarily based in the United States and China—account for 40% of global corporate research and development spending in AI. Major technology companies such as Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft have each reached market valuations of approximately $3 trillion, figures comparable to the GDP of entire regions, including Africa.
UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan emphasized the need to prioritize people in the development of AI, calling for international cooperation to create a global governance framework that ensures equitable participation. “Shifting the focus from technology to people” is essential, Grynspan stated, to allow countries to co-develop inclusive AI strategies.
The report estimates that up to 40% of global jobs could be affected by AI, underscoring the need for proactive labour and education policies. While AI adoption may improve productivity, it could also lead to job displacement, particularly in sectors reliant on low-cost labour. UNCTAD stresses that investment in skills development, including reskilling and upskilling, will be essential to ensure AI contributes positively to employment outcomes.
Despite the growing importance of AI in national development strategies, less than one-third of developing countries have adopted formal AI policies. The report identifies infrastructure, data, and human capital as the three foundational areas required for countries to effectively integrate AI into their economies.
UNCTAD also notes the lack of representation in global AI governance. At present, 118 countries—mostly from the Global South—are not part of major decision-making forums shaping AI regulation and ethical standards. The agency argues that international cooperation is necessary to create a more inclusive framework that supports equitable access and shared benefits.
The report proposes several policy measures to support inclusive AI development. These include the establishment of a global public disclosure mechanism similar to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) frameworks; a shared infrastructure facility to enable equitable access; the coordination of open-source AI initiatives; and enhanced capacity-building efforts, particularly through South-South cooperation.
UNCTAD concludes that AI has the potential to serve as a driver of sustainable development, but only if current disparities are addressed through strategic investment, inclusive governance, and international collaboration.
